EnMasse

[obscurantist]

Here in Vancouver, we like to start predicting our next civic elections well in advance. You'd think it was an American presidential campaign or something. So, anyway, the latest buzz is that former "juice king" and current NDP MLA Gregor Robertson could be a compromise mayoral candidate for divided centre-left forces looking to defeat Sam Sullivan, who has proven to be sufficiently flaky that he could be vulnerable to a challenge after just one term.

the Vancouver-Fairview NDP MLA told the Georgia Straight it is "too early" to confirm unequivocally that he will enter the race.

[leftcoastguy]

Fred Bass singlehandily can claim credit for putting Sullivan into the mayor's chair. What a freakin' idiot he was dividing the opposition to the NPA like that in the last election.
_________________
Thinking is so overrated.

[obscurantist]

Sure, Bass didn't help things. And neither did Tim Louis. Or James Green. Or Larry Campbell. Plenty of blame to go around. But you can't live in the past, eh?

So, leftcoastguy, who would you like to see as Vancouver mayor? I promise I won't disagree with you just for the sake of disagreeing with you.

[leftcoastguy]

I thought Jim Green would have been a good mayor but perhaps his day is done. How old is he now?

I think it would be a shame to see either Gregor or Jenny leave the provincial scene before the next provincial election.

Louie or Cadman perhaps.
_________________
Thinking is so overrated.

[obscurantist]

I think Green's in his mid-sixties.

Well, it looks like we agree. I guess I can live with that.

[leftcoastguy]

What about Heather Deal (sp?)


Who voted for Jenny?

If Jenny leaves provincial politics she would be an excellent candidate imo.
_________________
Thinking is so overrated.

[obscurantist]

Yeah, Heather Deal might be a good candidate. She's got the background on council and on parks board before that. Of course, the media would go wild over the opportunity to make headlines with stupid puns like "COPE, Vision, reach Deal over joint mayoral candidate" or "The left's new Deal for Vancouver" (you heard it here first, folks). Maybe George Chow -- he also seems to have emerged as a strong presence on council. Just about any of the Vision and COPE councillors could lead a campaign, I guess, except for maybe Tim Stevenson.

The sad thing is that of the names I've heard mentioned as possible candidates, none have been female. I added Kwan and Woodsworth to the list because I thought they had just as much relevant experience as many of the men whose names had been suggested. Without them and Tim Louis (who I added because he's been so central in the left-wing squabbling of the last several years), the group of "contenders" is a bunch of straight able-bodied guys, all of whom are white except for Raymond Louie.

Like I said, I have no way of knowing whether Kwan would even be interested -- like Libby Davies, she probably feels with some justification that she's needed where she is right now. It just says a lot that no one would even float their names in the first place.

[Admiral Awesome]

I voted for Robertson, I think he'd make a good mayor, but then again I too would hate to loose him from the provincial scene. And it seems that traditionally most people move from municipal to provincial politics, not the other way around. Which is why I don't think we'd be seeing Kwan either, even though I think she'd make a good mayor too.

Cadman might work, due to his experience, and I think he'd make a good Mayor but I think I'd prefer to not run one of the people who were involved in the previous council. Which is why I'd prefer not to run Louie either. Even though I'd much rather have either of them run, as opposed to Stevenson (who'd probably pull a John Kerry - not to mention his role in the previous council), or god forbid Louis (another divisive candidate). Hell if either of the last two ran I'd be tempted to vote for a third party candidacy.

I think names like Deal, or Chow are far better choices, mostly because they weren't that associated with the divisiveness of the previous council, but seem to be solid councillors who have the political skills, and solidly pro-environmental stances, to take on Sullivan and yet are moderate enough to avoid being easily portrayed as 'scary' along the lines of say a Bass or Louis candidacy. It seems like this strike has had somewhat of a negative effect on Sullivan's approval ratings, cause I don't think most people will think he's handled it very well. But he should never be under estimated.

[leftcoastguy]

This is indeed great news if it materializes.

[leftcoastguy]

Vision and COPE better get their act together. It's time to bury the hatchet (sorry but that means you too Fred Bass), join together, get a brand new name that everyone can live with, and run a a group of a good cross section of the Vancouver community, and a high profile unifying mayority candidate as well.

What are the ethnic breakdowns for Vancouver?

European - ?%

Chinese - ?%

East Indian - ?%

Etc. - ?%
_________________
Thinking is so overrated.

[V. Jara]

Jenny Kwan's not a good public speaker, otherwise I would agree. Jang would make a good candidate for council and unless Robertson or someone else steps up, I think people would be smart to go with candidate Cadman.

[obscurantist]

Vision has an unprecedented three-way race for its mayoral nomination between Robertson, Louie, and former NPA park board commissioner Alan de Genova. The would-be Vision candidates had their first public debate last week, and a couple more debates are planned before the nomination meeting on June 15.

Meanwhile, Peter Ladner decided to openly challenge Sullivan for the NPA's mayoral nomination, and Sullivan agreed to change the party's rules to allow Ladner to run against him. The NPA will choose its mayoral candidate on June 8, although Sullivan has tried to avoid a public debate with Ladner (a story in today's Sun suggests that he's changed his mind, but it's difficult to tell - does anyone here speak Sullivanese?).

If there's going to be a third-party challenge to Vision on the left, it could come from Betty Krawczyk, who announced her candidacy several months back when she got out of jail, or from COPE, as David Cadman has mused about COPE running its own mayoral candidate (possibly Cadman himself). I'm not sure when COPE will be making that decision - maybe not until August or September.

A particularly good source of information about the election, including about candidates for council / park board / school board, is the Vancouver Sun's City States blog.

[obscurantist]

More revealing than the debate itself is the fact that Vision claims to have signed up at least 10,000 new members. Allen Garr suggests that, even discounting those members who are ineligible to vote at the nomination meeting by virtue of being too young or not being Vancouver residents, Vision is likely the biggest municipal political party this city has ever seen. It doesn't mean for certain that the NPA will lose its council majority or the mayoralty in November, but it shows considerable dissatisfaction with the NPA, possibly even among its own core supporters, and it does suggest that Vision is building a broad coalition, hopefully one that won't fall apart like COPE did when it won control of council in 2002.

The range of people supporting the various candidates seems to confirm this. While Louie has relatively few high-profile supporters (mainly NDP stalwarts like Joy MacPhail), Robertson has the endorsement of current and former elected officials from COPE, the NPA and the Greens. Meanwhile, Larry Campbell (now a Liberal senator) is supporting de Genova, as is Mark Marissen, the federal and provincial Liberal backroom boy who ran his wife Christy Clark's unsuccessful campaign for the 2005 NPA mayoral nomination. I get the sense that the Liberals in Vision are hedging their bets. If Ladner can replace Sullivan as the NPA nominee, and if de Genova fails in his takeover of Vision, some of the Liberals may drift back to the NPA. But then Liberals like to bet on a winning horse, and may be more inclined in any event to support a party that's building itself up rather than one that's tearing itself apart.

I realize this is getting a bit horse-race-ish, and that aspect of politics doesn't interest me nearly as much as it used to. So to put it in different terms, this is a critical election in that the NPA under Sullivan has become very much like the Harper Tories and Campbell Liberals, focusing entirely on PR announcements and on jamming the opposition rather than on substantive policy. And Ladner has been an enthusiastic participant in Sullivan's project up until very recently. If voters reward the NPA for its behaviour, we can expect a lot more of the same and worse.

My main fear is that voters on the centre and left will get hung up on the narcissism of small differences, on the lingering bitterness of the split between COPE and Vision, and will allow the NPA to sneak back in. There's a lot of good people in COPE, and I expect they'll have council and park / school board candidates worth supporting. But if COPE and Vision attack each other, particularly in a mayoral race which after all does count for one possibly crucial vote on council, it doesn't take a political science prof to figure out what will happen.

I think whoever wins the Vision mayoral nomination will be an electable and competent choice for the mayoralty. Given de Genova's personality and his supporters, I'm a bit leery of the prospect that he could be a repeat of Larry Campbell. But unlike Campbell, de Genova won't be handed the candidacy in a coronation, so hopefully he'll be more realistic than Campbell was about who he has to work with.

As I've said before, I respect Cadman a lot, and think he's done a great job on council. I just think a mayoral run would wreck that. He can continue with the work he's doing, with greater influence if the centre-left can win back control of council, sort of as a George Puil of the left, the guy who gets things done. Or he can end his elected political career as a Ralph Nader of sorts, either as the guy who re-elected Sullivan and the NPA (if he gets enough votes to make a difference) or as someone completely irrelevant.

On another note, the mechanics of the current tensions within Vancouver city politics show the need for reform of its electoral system. It was through Sullivan's vigorous and well-funded efforts that the proposal for a ward system failed four years ago. I'm not entirely convinced that a ward system would be a miracle cure for the skewed outcomes of our elections (one such outcome being the fact that independent candidates have virtually no chance of getting elected), but it could be a good first step. Even the winner-take-all model of electing a mayor, which is in place across Canada, is prone to abuse, as shown by the suspiscious third-party candidacy of James Green last time and by the allegations that have been made about the most recent Ottawa mayoral race.

[obscurantist]

There's another debate between the candidates vying for Vision's mayoral nomination on Tuesday, June 3 at 12:30 on the radio station CKNW.

It's on the show hosted by Christy Clark. That would be the same Christy Clark who ran for the NPA mayoral nomination in the last election, and whose husband Mark Marissen is now supporting one of the three would-be Vision candidates, Alan de Genova.

What can I say? It's a small world....

[obscurantist]

The thing with a Coalition of Progressive Electors meeting is that you can never predict when -- in the name of democracy -- someone will decide to launch a rocket. Or, almost as bad, start a debate about "process." That always lends an element of suspense to COPE annual general meetings that you just don't find with other political parties.

[obscurantist]

Christy Clark is interviewing Ladner and Sullivan on CKNW right now. This could be fun. It's always more entertaining to see the other guys tear each other apart.

(And at the risk of belabouring the point, yes, this is the same Christy Clark who ran against Sullivan for the NPA nomination last time. If I tried making this stuff up, no one would believe me....)

Edited to add: Vision had a second public debate tonight, which I went to. Glad I did, because I have a clearer sense of the candidates now.

Robertson has more substance than I gave him credit for - either he's been following developments at the local level closely for a while before going into politics, or he's a quick study. My preference for Louie might partly be due to the fact that I identify with him more - he seems like given a choice, he'd rather not be speaking to an audience, but when he gets going on topics that matter to him, he can speak in a way that's down-to-earth, engaged and quite articulate. If anything, he's better thinking on his feet than giving a prepared speech, while Robertson might be the other way around.

De Genova appears to be a decent, smart, genial guy who would make a good candidate and mayor, and whose views aren't particularly reactionary, but he's just in the wrong party. Really, he should be the NPA candidate, and he would be the best person they've fielded for mayor since ... well, I guess I'd have to say "since Owen" because I can't think of any other NPA mayors or mayoral candidates who I have the time of day for. From the response he got at the debate, which was civil but tepid aside from his cheering section of a few young yobbos with "Al!" t-shirts, I'd be very surprised if he has a chance of winning the Vision nod.

They had a few interesting questions, submitted by Vision members. A couple on labour relations, one on waste management, one on the Southeast False Creek affordable housing component. One question was about working with COPE. Robertson emphasized his support from across the political spectrum. De Genova stressed his collaboration with COPE park board commissioners. Louie referred to his ongoing working relationship with Cadman.

Another question, which I'd wanted to ask, was whether they'd run for council if they lost the mayoral nomination. Louie gave an uncategorical yes, saying that he hadn't originally run for council with the idea of becoming mayor and that he had work he would continue to do in either capacity. De Genova said he was focused on running for mayor and that he'd decide what to do after June 15, noting that he'd served 15 years on park board before deciding not to run for that office again. Robertson said that he would continue to serve as MLA, and in the fall would decide whether he could best serve the citizens of Vancouver by remaining an MLA or by running for council, which I thought was at least an honest response.

The vote will be decided by a preferential ballot. Think I'll stick with my plan of ranking Louie first and Robertson second. I feel quite upbeat about the prospect of either as the candidate, and they seem to be the frontrunners. De Genova probably wouldn't be a total disaster, but I don't think he'd be a great fit for Vision.

[TS.]

Huge news! Sam Sullivan has lost the race for the NPA nomination for mayor! The NPA candidate next election will be Peter Ladner.

Source: Globe and Mail
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[obscurantist]

In addition to losing the nomination, the mayor also had a pitcher of Coke poured on him by an Anti-Poverty Committee protester who walked into the meeting.

This isn't the first stunt like this the APC has pulled - they also dumped a pile of garbage outside Sullivan's condo the other year. I don't think the causes they claim to promote are helped by such nasty personalized tactics. They basically use those causes as an excuse to bully people.

Sullivan's also something of a bully, in more of a manipulative, passive-aggressive way. But he didn't deserve to get literally dumped on by the APC like that.

[Leisure Suit Larry]

I have no respect for the anti poverty committee and have no sympathy for the plight of someone who would pour coke over someone in a wheelchair. Maybe it's because their own lives are so terrible, which one can only hope.

[obscurantist]

Given that Vision was hoping to face Sullivan, the question is now who they should choose to take on Ladner. I think Louie would be the best candidate in the present circumstances, and I've heard a few other people suggest that he got a boost from Ladner's victory.

Ladner and Robertson are kind of similar. They're both eloquent urbane types with business experience and "green" credentials of the sort that West Side yuppies admire (Ladner being Mr. Cyclist, and Robertson being Mr. Organic). The main difference is that Ladner has more political experience at the local level. It's true that he's spent the last three years supporting Sullivan as council went "off the rails" in Ladner's words. But his experience would probably give him an edge over Robertson, assuming that the NPA isn't irreparably divided.

Louie, on the other hand, has been on council as long as Ladner, and he's a bit different in style - more of a plain-spoken populist. He apparently was a lousy public speaker when he started out, but as I mentioned above, in the recent debates he seemed quite good on his feet, with a knack for cutting through the rhetoric and putting things in concrete terms.

Others have suggested that Robertson would be the best candidate to take on Ladner, which is probably the prevailing wisdom. The Georgia Straight's Charlie Smith comes up with some original arguments in support of this position:

[Hephaestion]

[obscurantist]

I'll say this for Sullivan: in a perverse way, he got people to stop seeing him in terms of his disability. By antagonizing so many people with his policies and his leadership style, he made it easy to forget that he was confined to a wheelchair. (Likewise, when I think of former councillor Tim Louis, the first things that come to mind are his Che Guevara t-shirt and his blistering attacks on, well, just about everyone, rather than the fact that he's quadriplegic.)

As for what people don't like about Sullivan, the Globe's intrepid investigative reporter and deep thinker Gary Mason concludes that few can articulate their intense antipathy toward the man. They simply just can't stand him.

[Admiral Awesome]

I'm not convinced Ladner will be that much more difficult to beat than Sullivan. Sullivan was tarred and feathered by the Civic Strike, largely because of his own autocratic leadership, but when it comes down to it the entire NPA-team including Ladner stood behind him. Really I can't think of a single policy issue where Ladner broke with the NPA caucus, or Mayor Sullivan. Ladner outlined why he was running pretty clearly in this Tyee article:

[obscurantist]

According to Frances Bula, De Genova's and Louie's campaigns will tell their supporters to mark the other candidate as their second choice in order to beat Robertson. (See also Bula's more detailed update, and Monte Paulsen's article in the Tyee.)

If this is true, it could backfire big-time, particularly for Louie. I’ve supported him partly because I’m leery of the Robertson personality-cult bandwagon (I like Robertson enough that I would rank him second). But if Louie’s organizers think they can count on his supporters to strike an alliance with a centre-right former NPAer backed by provincial and federal Liberals in order to stop an NDP MLA from becoming the mayoral candidate, they might be badly misjudging the nature of Vision Vancouver’s membership. And if they aren’t misjudging, then maybe I’m in the wrong party.

There've also been allegations that the Robertson campaign exerted influence over the Vision board to bend the rules so that ballots with no second preference on them would still be counted. The whole thing just leaves me kind of turned off. I thought the goal was to choose a mayoral candidate and council candidates who either on their own or in cooperation with COPE could take council back from the regressive NPA majority? Apparently not. Rather, it's a battle of egos stage-managed by backroom boys who are too clever by half.

[obscurantist]

To follow up on that last point, Bula speculates today that De Genova's Liberal backers are trying to sneak to victory through a ratfucking strategy that would make Nixon proud:

There's been something puzzling me all week about the information percolating out about the alleged deal between the Allan De Genova campaign and the Raymond Louie campaign to get their supporters to mark each other as second choice. That information came from the De Genova camp only.

[munroe]

Obscure, if I was in Vancouver I would do exactly what you are doing. Mind you, I hate it when the MSM influences my thinking, even a decent reporter like Bula.
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Out of Afghanistan, NOW!

[obscurantist]

Close to 6,800 people (!) turned out to select Vision Vancouver's mayoral nominee today. Gregor Robertson won with almost 3,500 votes, while Raymond Louie got just over 2,200 and Al De Genova got just under 1,000.

The clear win helped defuse the tension that had been present all day, as Louie organizers claimed that their voters were being challenged more frequently than others on their right to vote.

[obscurantist]

COPE sounds willing to work with Vision, but the tricky bit will be figuring out how to assemble a joint slate, given the current makeup of council and the people who want to run:

[Hephaestion]

Surprise! Robertson doesn't get around to telling James he's gone

[buday4vancouverinde]

Myself (http://www.bcindividualist.org/fb/), Banana (http://www.facebook.com/pages/Banana/34100647624), Betty K (http://www.worklessparty.org/index.php?option=com_contact&catid=4&Itemid=3), and Pete McMartin (http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=28368435021) are "Other".

My left is more to those who are on the right.
Generally or on average I am Classic Liberal or Libertarian and opposed to Eco(nomic) Density and the Liberty Bashing Bylaw Requiring Candidates (for Council Member Candidates but enforced on all) to get 25 signatures (the Parties have 50+ Members to endorse on the ballot, conflict of interest vote?); I am a ballot access for all advocate, for liberalizing nominations (http://www.groups.to/ballotaccess/) and debate access.
I am also against (not to be confused with laws against certain substances) the War on Drugs and all Police State (end justifying the means policing) and a ardent privacy and freedom of speech advocate. Lefties (speech: Guy Earle Case) don't always like that crap across the board, neither do the Righties and sometimes do (speech: Steyn/Levant Case).
None the less to the right I am left. More Populist Libertarian.
I am not a joke Candidate, I do tell them. I am a parody vs Clarke nomination with the neorhino.ca party in Vancouver-Centre over the old guard nomination decision in the Libertarian Party.
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Best,

Gölök "LD Taylored" Buday
Artist, Entertainer, Humanist (writer, etc...), Philotician & Candidate for Vancouver (Mayor - I) FBID# 763864821 - "Apathy is the root of all evil's enabling." -- Gölök Zoltán Leenderdt Franco Buday

[Hephaestion]

Errr... Gölök?

If that really IS your picture... you're kinda cute, in a Ernesto Guevera way, but your post is just a little... disjointed-sounding.

Maybe you need to smoke something...?
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"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin

[buday4vancouverinde]

[buday4vancouverinde]

[buday4vancouverinde]

[Hephaestion]

[buday4vancouverinde]

I'll start by saying, with people like me, the NPA may be in fear of my free market fix the road view as well as COPE is fearing the more succesful Vision may split it's vote and repeate the unification that laded them one seat.

[buday4vancouverinde]

[Hephaestion]

[DSquared]

COPE, Vision unite behind Robertson
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This is pre-eminently the time, to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself-Franklin Delano Roosevelt

[DSquared]

COPE, Vision field joint slate
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This is pre-eminently the time, to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself-Franklin Delano Roosevelt

[buday4vancouverinde]

Candidate Profiles
_________________
Best,

Gölök "LD Taylored" Buday
Artist, Entertainer, Humanist (writer, etc...), Philotician & Candidate for Vancouver (Mayor - I) FBID# 763864821 - "Apathy is the root of all evil's enabling." -- Gölök Zoltán Leenderdt Franco Buday

[Hephaestion]

Xtra West interviews Vision Vancouver mayoral candidate Gregor Robertson
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"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin

[obscurantist]

Well, it's today - people have until 8 pm to vote. Turnout at the advance polls has been double what it was last time, although that's no guarantee of any particular result.

I'm just heading out to vote for Robertson as mayor, the one Green candidate, all the COPE people, most of the Vision candidates, and a few of the Work Less Party candidates.

While the WLP seems like a parody of east-side Vancouver leftist politics, they have a few bright people running for them like Timothy Wisdom, one of the few council candidates to raise the issue of policies that concentrate bars and music venues in a small downtown area while making it more difficult to operate them elsewhere in the city. Might also vote for Geri Tramutola, and for Chris Shaw, a vocal but levelheaded critic of Vancouver's Winter Olympics shell game. There's a WLP candidate running for park board as well.

I tend not to vote just for one slate. Voted for Ladner in 2002, and there's some decent people running for the NPA like Anton, Ball, Geller and Bickerton. But I don't think I'll vote for any NPA candidates this time. The slate went along with Sullivan's stunts for far too long, and they deserve another break. I'm not wild about Vision's candidates either - they seem to embody the most cynical aspects of the provincial NDP and federal Liberals. But at the moment they seem marginally better than the NPA.

In terms of predictions, I see Vision winding up with 5 or 6 seats, while the NPA will probably just keep its 3 incumbents who are running again plus maybe Geller. Cadman will likely be re-elected. As for mayor, I really don't know. I wasn't impressed with Robertson until recently, and the spectacular fumble of Robertson's transit ticket fine left me convinced Ladner would win. But Robertson has done a good job of plugging away on the "why" of the $100 million loan to the Olympic village developer and the need for a secret council meeting to approve it, and I think it's resonated with normally apolitical people, while Ladner has come across as an out-of-touch technocrat.

It's too bad - in one sense, Ladner is better suited than Robertson to be mayor given his knowledge and his work on civic / regional issues over the years. But I also have to go on the basis of his record under Sullivan's mayoralty, and the way he's conducted this campaign. Ladner is like John McCain - in his efforts first to appear loyal and then to obtain power, he's abandoned the qualities that people liked about him in the first place.

[Admiral Awesome]

I sort of held my nose for a few of the Vision candidates, namely Meggs and Stevenson and considered voting for a few of the WLP candidates instead. But I thought about it strategically, plus I really wasn't too sure about a party that would run Ian Gregson, and was worried that not voting straight ticket would lead to a break for the NPA, which I feel needs to be shut out completely. Otherwise, I'm pretty happy with the Vision and COPE slates (and the Green guy), they're qualified individuals (for the most part) and their diversity is reflective of Vancouver. Though strangely the gender balance isn't quite as good as the NPA.

Anyhow, here are the results. As of now things are looking good. I'm hoping that a few of the NPA'ers near the bottom of the Council, Parks Board and School Board slates drop off infavour of their COPE or Vision competitors. And though this looks like one of the few instances where the at-large system worked out for the left, I hope that the new council looks at re-introducing the ward system. Though I'd like the NPA to be routed, under a "fair" electoral system they'd still get some representation. In any case there's no guarantee that Vision is now Vancouver's "natural governing party", or that if they become it - they'll remain at least moderately progressive.

[TS.]

Looking at the results, with eight divisions still to report (most in the areas that voted for Robinson), only one NPA councillor is on the list, only one parks commissioner and two school trustees. Robertson is leading by 14000-odd.
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[TS.]

Final results:

Mayor: Gregor Robertson

Councillors:
- Raymond P. Louie (Vision)
- Heather Deal (Vision)
- George Chow (Vision)
- Kerry Jang (Vision)
- Andrea Reimer (Vision)
- Tim Stevenson (Vision)
- David Cadman (COPE)
- Suzanne Anton (NPA)
- Geoff Meggs (Vision)
- Ellen Woodsworth (COPE)

Parks Commissioners:
- Constance Barnes (Vision)
- Aaron Jasper (Vision)
- Sarah Blyth (Vision)
- Loretta Woodcock (COPE)
- Raj Hundal (Vision)
- Stuart MacKinnon (Green)
- Ian Robertson (NPA)

School Trustees:
- Patti Bachus (Vision)
- Mike Lombardi (Vision)
- Ken Clement (Vision)
- Sharon Gregson (Vision)
- Allan Wong (COPE)
- Al Blakey (COPE)
- Jane Bouey (COPE)
- Ken Denike (NPA)
- Carol Gibson (NPA)
_________________
"Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear." - Thomas Jefferson

[Admiral Awesome]

Well it's looking pretty good, and let's just say it's nice to be on the winning team. Not just the moral victory team.

But anyhow. Here are my quick highs and lows of the results.

Lows:

Anita Romaniuk (Parks Board - COPE) didn't get elected. She runs for so much (provincially, municipally) yet gets elected so little. I think she was only elected once out of all the times and positions she's ran for in the last ten years.

Suzanne Anton (Council - NPA) got re-elected. She's qualified, and thus should provide a somewhat reasonable and appealing opposition should Vision screw up. I was hoping that should an NPA'er have survived, it would've been someone somewhat incomprehensible and utterly unsuited to the job. But I guess this can also be a good thing because it's good for democracy. Though I suspect COPE might play a bit of an opposition role to Vision, if Vision strays to far to the right.

Ken Denike (School Board - NPA) got re-elected. Like Anton, he's qualified and should provide a somewhat reasonable and appealing opposition should vision screw up. So again, I was hoping an incomprehensible and unsuited person would've been carrying their flag on School Board. I don't know enough about Carol Gibson to say either way, since the city provided profiles are all rather positive (as they're written by the candidates themselves - though some of the profiles are little wacky too).

Work Less Party - it would've been nice to see them do a little better. They have some interesting ideas. I know people, *cough*myself*cough*, who sympathize with them ought to have voted for them if they believe that. And too many lefties voting for them would've equalled more NPA'ers elected, so that's not too bad. But still I hope they stick around and continue to articulate their ideas.


The Highs

Gregor Robertson (Vision Mayor) getting elected. After that controversy over the ticket for an unpaid Skytrain fair, I thought he would've been derailed. It would've been a shame too, because beyond all of the policy issues at stake and because Kevin Falcon (the provincial Liberal Transportation Minister) would've been happy. And really, what's more annoying to a good Vancouverite than watching a right-wing Surreyite (or is that Surrey-inian?) take pleasure in interfering in our politics? Hmm, now that I think of it maybe that was the kiss of death for Peter Ladner, having someone from Surrey attack his opponent? Just kidding, Surrey jokes are hard to resist.

The NPA getting sweeped out of office. Not much more to it than that, other than the obvious reverse of COPE and Vision doing the sweeping.

Constance Barnes (Vision) topping the Parks Board polls was pretty neat to see. Her dad, the late NDP MLA for Vancouver-Burrard (Emery Barnes), would be pretty proud.

Stuart MacKinnon (Green) winning a seat on parks board was good to see. They have before, but it was good to see every party in the lefty-alliance getting some representation.


Vision doing so well in the South-Eastern quadrant of the city. Compare Today's map.



With 2005's.



The differences are like night and day. I really think Sullivan can be credited with doing so well (for an NPA'er) on the eastside in 2005, largely because of his ability to speak Cantonese and because he's from the area. He was a jerk, but he was a populist, non-blue blood jerk. If he ran again, I don't know that the left would've done so well in that Renfrew-Collingwood, Hastings-Sunrise area.

Also, one of the other areas that I was surprised Vision did well in, was the Cole-Harbour/False Creek area. If there are any provincial trends to read into from this, which might be a bit dangerous, maybe the NDP stands a chance in the new Vancouver-False Creek seat that I would've assumed was safely Liberal.

[obscurantist]

A few random thoughts:

I was disappointed to see that Kashmir Dhaliwal just barely missed getting elected. There hasn't been an Indo-Canadian person on council since the '70s, which is kind of strange for one of the city's largest communities. It's also strange that Dhaliwal didn't seem to benefit from the sweep that elected all of Vision's other council candidates. On the other hand, Raj Hundal made it onto parks board, and we now have an aboriginal person on school board (Ken Clement), with three Chinese-Canadians on council.

With COPE electing both of its candidates for council and Vision winning a large majority, Vision may be tempted to conclude that it doesn't need COPE's support anymore, and could try to secure the political centre for itself in order to permanently take the NPA's place. COPE could decide that it has nothing to gain by being conciliatory toward Vision (although Cadman and Woodsworth have a record as concilators - I'm pleasantly surprised to see Woodsworth back on council, by the way). If that's the case, the seeds for an NPA comeback may already have been sown. I expect Anton to do a good job of carrying the NPA banner.

The results also could bode well for the NDP in next year's provincial election. Vision is the closest thing Vancouver has had to a civic wing of the provincial party, with most of its candidates being connected to the BC NDP except for Reimer (a former Green) and Dhaliwal (a federal Liberal organizer). Victoria also elected a left-leaning mayor and council (I have some problems with what passes for the civic left in Victoria, but that's a whole other discussion). Then again, I might be reading too much into things, as Vision is a new party that's brought a lot of people into the political process and managed to get its vote out in a year of poor turnout, while the NPA was demoralized and divided following Sullivan's flaky tenure and his ouster by Ladner.

It never hurts to forget that elections are lost as much as they're won. This election wasn't so much a strong endorsement of Vision as it was a rejection of the NPA's record under Sullivan. Ladner and the other NPA councillors voted in unison with the mayor, and Ladner expressed no public dissent until earlier this year, so voters could be forgiven for disregarding the fact that Sullivan wasn't running again.

And who can say that Vision will be immune from the problems of the last two councils? While the Vision caucus will probably be cohesive, Robertson's preference for big-picture ideals over policy specifics could cause him to flame out in the way that Campbell and Sullivan did. However, I'm hopeful that Robertson has more of a practical side than we've seen in the campaign. And he does at least seem to be less of an egomaniac than either of the last two mayors.

[Hephaestion]

Senator Larry was punditifying on CTV Gnus tonight, and he seemed quite begrudging -- no, even beyond that, absolutely petulant -- about Robertson's and Vision's win. And I figure anything that pisses off Senator Larry has to be at least partly good.
_________________
"The dignity of an animal is measured by his capacity to revolt in the face of oppression." -- Mikhail Bakunin

[Admiral Awesome]

Obscurantist, just to add to your point about diversity Barnes is black, so Vision has pretty much everyone covered, to at least some degree. I think the diversity of their slate, and to a lesser degree COPE's (which has a lot less people, so it was harder), helped them. Though to be fair to the NPA they fielded a pretty diverse slate as well, so obviously this wasn't a decisive factor. This is comparing apples to oranges, but the federal NDP slate in the Metro Vancouver was pretty much all white, which doesn't help in a region that's 37% visible minority.

Hephaestion, The more I hear from Larry Campbell, the less I like. Granted, I realized long ago (though not soon enough) that he's a bit of an egomaniac so it's better he's on "another team." But I have to wonder what's up with him because he's been extremely erratic for the last few years. He kept singing the praises of Raymond Louie and claiming that he'd be a great mayor once Jim Green lost, and Louie became the ipso facto "leader of the opposition", but then during the Vision nomination contest he went and endorsed the long time NPA Parks Board Commissioner Al DeGenova instead (who ended up finishing a distant third).

In fact that reminds me of why I had reservations voting for Geoff Meggs, who worked for Campbell and Glen Clark. I know guilt by association isn't cool, but it does raise a few eyebrows, especially since city council has a tendency to be less disciplined and more individual focused than higher levels of government. Meggs said all the right things during the campaign, and presented himself as a solidly progressive individual. But supposing this council degenerates into infighting like the last three he'll be one of the people Robertson will need to keep an eye on.

As for Robertson, I've been a fan of his for a while. But I think his style is more suited to civic politics than provincial ones. He's more of a conciliatory leader, and though he tried to play the theatrical role required of him on the provincial scene he never really developed much of a profile outside of his riding. He never really rose through the ranks of the opposition caucus either, which became dominated by the "good old boys." I think the conciliatory tone he set, within the party, and with COPE and the Greens, is a welcome change from the way that COPE light and Classic treated each other, and the way that their barely concealed contempt did them in during the 2005 election. This is not to say that rifts aren't going to appear, but I think it's less of a gurantee. Besides, from an idelogical perspective I think Robertson sits within the mainstream of the centre-left NDP which is good since it's not too far from the centrist position of some elements of Vision and the more leftist position of COPE (though Woodsworth and Cadman aren't as far left as Bass or Louis by any stretch of the imagination). With Campbell, the problem the COPEsters should've seen, was that he was an unknown. They probably thought that was good, since he could say he was "centrist" and it would distract from COPE's strongly left wing reputation that was off putting to centrist voters. But it also meant that he and the more left-wing members were going to have problems. And since he and those like Louis weren't very pragmatic this ate at the party more than it would've otherwise. That doesn't seem to be an issue with Robertson.

Just one last note too, what was up with Marty Zlotnik's re-election signs? They were pretty tacky. I'm not saying they affected his campaign either way, but they were odd. I can't find a picture of them online, but basically everyone else (other NPAers, Vision, COPE) had standard run of the mill signs. He had these huge ones that were at least twice as big as your average "large" sign with his name in huge block letters, with red maple leafs and a blue background. It was a little strange, seeing as he was only a one-term Parks Board Commissioner seeking re-election.